Title: UK Climate Impacts Programme 2002 Climate Change sanarios: Implementation for Flood and Coastal Defence: Guidance for Users
Author: Hawkes Peter
Author: Environment Agency
Document Type: Monograph
Annotation: Environment Agency Project ID:EAPRJOUT_1310, Representation ID: 431, Object ID: 2499
This report provides guidance for use of the UKCIP02 climate change scenario information within the flood and coastal defence community of England and Wales. It is presented in user manual format, including specific guidance for particular activities within the general areas of aCoastala and aRiversa (referring to input and derived hydraulic parameters) and aDecisionsa (referring to economic decisions). The widely used aappropriate precautionary allowancesa recommended by Defra were reviewed in the light of the new information in UKCIP02. The advantages of maintaining continuity with current allowances were thought to outweigh the value of any refinements that might be made to the allowances. However, a new allowance for high and extreme wave conditions is recommended, and it is noted that ongoing research may soon permit refinement of the rainfall and river flow allowances. Parameter Mean sea level Extreme sea level High and extreme rainfall and river flow High and extreme wind speeds and offshore wave conditions Current practice Recommendation and comment For Environment Agency Regions: a 6mm/yr for Anglian, Thames, Southern and North East (South of No change, but note comment below Flamborough Head) for extreme sea level a 5mm/yr for South West and Wales a 4mm/yr for North West and North East (North of Flamborough Head) No change, but review if higher Usually assumed to be as for mean sea extreme values especially around the level Thames Estuary and Anglian Region are supported by future modelling No change to sensitivity allowance, Test sensitivity to additional 20% in but ongoing research may lead to peak flow or volume over 50 years refinements Add 10% sensitivity allowance to offshore wind speeds and wave heights by 2080s (and 5% to wave None periods) a new recommendation a needs to be considered in relation to depth limited conditions inshore The allowances, approaches and demonstration calculations are not intended to stifle the use of more exhaustive or sophisticated methods in major studies such as strategy studies, national flood risk assessments or CFMPs. However, they are recommended as appropriate in studies where climate change assessment is a relatively small part of the total study, and/or where necessary to maintain consistency with other similar studies, for example in prioritisation of defence schemes competing for funding. The accompanying Project Record (Environment Agency / Defra, 2002b) reviews the requirements and opinions of potential users and sets them alongside the information available from the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Where necessary, it recommends further research needed to facilitate consistent use of the future climate change information within the flood and coastal defence community. R and D TECHNICAL REPORT W5B-029/TR ii CONTENTS Executive Summary Acronyms ii v 1.
Publisher: Environment Agency
Subject Keywords: Rainfall; Climate change; Flood risk; Sea level rise; Flood defences; River flow; Precautionary allowance; Wind speed; Wave; River and coastal
Geographic Keywords: United Kingdomcip02.
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