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Title: UK Climate Impacts Programme 2002 Climate Change Scenarios: Implementation for Flood and Coastal Defence: Guidance for Users
Author: Peter Hawkes
Author: Steven Wade
Author: Environment Agency
Document Type: Monograph
Annotation: Environment Agency Project ID:EAPRJOUT_1309, Representation ID: 600, Object ID: 2498
Abstract:
This report addresses the use of future climate change information within the flood and coastal defence community of England and Wales. It reviews the requirements and opinions of the users and sets them alongside the information available from the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Where necessary, it recommends further research needed to facilitate consistent use of the future climate change information within the flood and coastal defence community. National allowances for future sea level rise and hydrology are the only commonly used future climate changes, although river flow or wave modelling is sometimes undertaken. Most users do not want discretion in quantifying and applying future climate change. They would prefer consistent straightforward guidelines, ideally in the form of contour maps of rainfall change, wave height change and sea level rise. There was a feeling that climate change calculations should focus more on the overall consequences of change than they do at present, and that they should be considered in the context of the many other uncertainties involved. The general uncertainty and lack of confidence in predictions of extremes concerned some users. The existence of four alternative future climate scenarios also presents a problem, without a developed policy for their use. Once established and accepted, most users argued for applying the guidance consistently and not changing it unless really necessary. Climate change scenarios provide a starting point for assessing climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation. UKCIP released new future climate scenarios in April 2002. Variables saved directly from the climate model runs include sea level rise, wind speed and direction, precipitation and soil moisture. Additional variables derived in subsequent modelling include surges and ocean currents, but wave conditions and river flows would involve further modelling and interpretation not yet undertaken. The following topics are recommended for further research needed to increase take-up of climate change scenarios by river and coastal engineers: a a a a a a refinement of extreme river flow and flood risk studies, as compared to the present 20% precautionary allowance refinement of extreme sea level projections to narrow the range of uncertainty, particularly in the Thames and Anglian regions modelling of wave climate and extremes modelling of impact on coastal defences and standard of service predictions for short duration rainfall for drainage studies modelling of impact on coastal morphology The accompanying Guidance for Users (Environment Agency / Defra, 2003) provides more detailed guidance intended for actual use in applying the UKCIP02 climate change information over a range of activities related to flood and coastal defence. R and D PROJECT RECORD W5B-029/PR ii CONTENTS Executive Summary Acronyms ii v 1 1 Introduction 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Scope of the project 1 2 User needs for climate change information 3 2.1 Approaches to information gathering 3 2.2 Which existing work elements consider future climate change? 4 2.3 How is climate change included at present? 5 2.4 Would different information, formats or techniques be preferred? 6 2.5 What are the known faults, difficulties and uncertainties? 8 2.6 Additional information requirements, applications and research needs 9 2.7 Summary of main points 3 11 UKCIP02 future climate scenario components 12 3.1 Climate models and scenarios 12 3.2 Rainfall 13 3.3 Sea level 14 3.4 Wind speed 16 3.5 Soil moisture 17 3.6 Uncertainties 18 Recommendations 19 4 4.1 Which user needs can already be addressed? 19 4.2 Which user needs require further research? 20 4.3 Research requirements 21 4.4 Other research ideas 23 5 References R and D PROJECT RECORD W5B-029/PR 25 iii Figures Figure 1 Percentage change in the 2-year return period daily precipitation between now and the 2080s (reproduced from UKCIP02 showing increases of up to 25% in Winter and decreases of up to 30% in Summer) 14 Figure 2a Increase in the 50-year return period sea level between now and the 2080s under the Low Emissions scenario (reproduced from UKCIP02 showing increases of around 0.2m for most of the UK but up to 0.8m in the Thames estuary) 15 Figure 2b Increase in the 50-year return period sea level between now and the 2080s under the Medium-High Emissions scenario (reproduced from UKCIP02 showing increases of around 0.4m for most of the UK but up to 1.2m in the Thames estuary) 15 Figure 2c Increase in the 50-year return period sea level between now and the 2080s under the High Emissions scenario (reproduced from UKCIP02 showing increases of around 0.7m for most of the UK but up to 1.5m in the Thames estuary) 16 Figure 3 Percentage change in the 2-year return period daily averaged wind speed between now and the 2080s (reproduced from UKCIP02 showing increases of up to about 6% in Winter and decreases of up to about 7% in Summer) 17 Table Table 1 Description of four scenarios used in UKCIP02 12 Appendices Appendix 1 Appendix 2 29 51 Telephone interview logs Outline proposals for further research requirements R and D PROJECT RECORD W5B-029/PR iv ACRONYMS CEH Centre for Ecology and Hydrology CFMP Catchment Flood Management Plan Defra Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs ECHAM German climate model FEH Flood Estimation Handbook GCM Global Climate Model HadCM3 British climate model IFPM Indicative Flood Plain Map LA Local Authority MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (now Defra) PAG Project Appraisal Guidance POL Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory PPG Planning Policy Guidance PR Project Record REUU Risk Evaluation and Understanding of Uncertainty SCOPAC Standing Conference on Problems Associated with the Coastline SLR Sea Level Rise SMP Shoreline Management Plan SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios TR Technical Report UKCIP United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme UKCIP02 UKCIP Climate Scenarios 2002 UKCIP98 UKCIP Climate Scenarios 1998 R and D PROJECT RECORD W5B-029/PR v R and D PROJECT RECORD W5B-029/PR vi 1
Publisher: Environment Agency
Subject Keywords: Rainfall; Climate change; Flood risk; Sea level rise; Flood defences; River flow; Precautionary allowance; Wind speed; Wave; River and coastal
Geographic Keywords: United Kingdomcip02.
Extent: 69
Permalink: http://www.environmentdata.org/archive/ealit:4860
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